ROSSELKHOZBANK ADMITS THE GRAIN YIELD OF 146-150 MILLION TONNES IN 2026/27 AGRICULTURAL SEASON IN BASE-CASE SCENARIO

Russia’s grain yield may amount to 146-150 million tonnes in the new season (July 2026-June 2027), according to the base-case scenario. This forecast can be found in the analytical review of Rosselkhozbank. Moreover, analysts also provide for the pessimistic (141-145 million tonnes) and optimistic (150-152 million tonnes) forecast variants. According to their estimates, grain export quota may amount to 23-25 million tonnes in 2027 (base-case scenario). The optimistic estimate of this indicator is 26-28 million tonnes, the pessimistic one is 20-22 million tonnes. This year, the quota is 25 million tonnes. The government approved it at 20 million tonnes in December 2025, and added 5 million tonnes in April this year. The quota is valid during the period from 15 February to 30 June every year. According to the analysts’ forecast, domestic grain consumption will amount to 87.6 million tonnes this year, 3.2 million tonnes of which are intended for commercial processing. They estimate the growth of grain processing facilities to 5 million tonnes by 2030.
The main volume of domestic consumption, 51 million tonnes, is intended for forage, 18.9 million tonnes – for food (flour, groats), 11.8 million tonnes – for seeds. According to the forecast, compound feed production can increase to 37.3 million in 2026 from 36.8 million tonnes in 2025 and 36.4 million tonnes in 2024.
Source: https://www.zol.ru/n/41392